Communication of Intent to Do Harm Preceding Mass Public Shootings in the United States, 1966 to 2019.

Importance: Understanding the motivation of a mass shooter's intent to do harm can help practitioners and policy makers develop more effective intervention strategies. Objective: To examine the prevalence of communication of intent to do harm, known as leakage, in a sample of 170 mass public shooters from 1966 to 2019; the characteristics of perpetrators who do and do not leak their plans; and whether leakage is a form of fame-seeking behavior or a cry for help among individuals who are in crisis or suicidal. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cross-sectional study included perpetrators who killed 4 or more people in a public space from 1996 to 2019 and were included in a comprehensive database of US mass shootings. That database was built from August 2017 to December 2019, and analysis took place from January to May 2021. Main Outcomes and Measures: Leakage was identified and coded using publicly available records. Any communication to a third party of an intent to do harm prior to the shooting was coded as leakage. Logistic regression models were used to examine the risk factors associated with leakage. Models estimating leakage were examined to assess the 2 hypothesized pathways to leakage (the cry-for-help model and the fame-seeking model). Results: The 170 participants in this sample included 166 (97.7%) male perpetrators and 3 (2.3%) female perpetrators, with a mean (SD) age of 34 (12) years. Overall, 161 participants had known race and ethnicity: 11 (6.8%) Asian individuals, 35 (21.7%) Black individuals, 14 (8.7%) Latinx individuals, 7 (4.4%) Middle Eastern individuals, 3 (1.9%) Native American individuals, 89 (55.3%) White individuals, and 2 (1.2%) individuals with other race and ethnicity. Overall, 79 mass shooters (46.5%) leaked their plans. Of perpetrators who leaked their plans, 35 (44.3%) leaked specific plans about a mass shooting, and 44 (55.1%) leaked nonspecific plans about generalized violence. The study findings indicate that leakage was associated with receiving counseling (odds ratio, 7.0; 95% CI, 2.0-24.8) and suicidality (odds ratio, 3.7; 95% CI, 1.0-13.6), suggesting that leakage may best be characterized as a cry for help from perpetrators prior to their act. Conclusions and Relevance: In this study, nearly half of the perpetrators of mass shootings leaked their plans. Leakage was associated with receiving counseling and suicidality. Leakage is a critical moment for mental health intervention to prevent gun violence. Opportunities to report threats of violence need to be increased. Traditional threat assessment models focused on specific threats of violence may miss critical opportunities for intervention.

Older Sexual Partners and Adolescent Females' Mental Health.

CONTEXT: The physical health detriments associated with adolescent females' having older romantic partners are well documented. However, little is known about the relationship between having an older partner and females' subsequent mental health. METHODS: Two waves of data from 1,440 participants in the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health were analyzed. The sample was restricted to females in grades 7-12 who had not had sex at Wave 1 (1994-1995) and reported at least one romantic relationship by Wave 2 (1996). A lagged dependent variable approach with ordinary least-squares regression measured changes in depression and self-esteem associated with sexual and nonsexual relationships with same-age and older partners. Intimate partner violence was tested as a mediator. RESULTS: Compared with respondents reporting a nonsexual relationship with a same-age partner, those reporting a nonsexual relationship with an older partner, sex with a same-age partner or sex with an older partner experienced greater increases in depression between surveys; mean predicted depression levels at Wave 2 ranged from 7.7 to 9.0 across these groups (possible range, 0-27). Intimate partner violence explained one-third of the difference between those who had had sex and those who had not had sex with same-age partners. Fewer associations were found for self-esteem, and differences between groups were small. CONCLUSIONS: Health correlates of adolescent sexual behavior go beyond physical health outcomes. Future research should identify mechanisms through which relationships, especially those with older partners, are associated with declines in mental health.